Good morning all!
The fourth named storm of the 2013 season, TS Dorian, continues to steamroll towards the northern Leeward Islands at a 17 mph clip, roughly 1800 miles away from Antigua. Moving slightly NW of West, Dorian is expected to pass about 190 miles to the north of the northern Leewards probably on Monday as a still tropical storm. It must be noted while almost all of the computer models are in close agreement with this, a wobble to the south will bring far greater impacts to the northern Caribbean as 4-5 day track forecasts have almost 200 miles of margin for error.
Intensity forecasting is an issue right now as dry air combined with cooler water temperatures could induce weakening of Dorian as it passes through that area of the Atlantic but warmer temperatures lie ahead of that as does an increase in wind shear.
Its entirely possible Dorian will fall prey to the usual suspects and bring only heavy rains and some gusty winds along its path but then again, as it gets closer to the T&C and the Bahamas, those ripe, yummy very warm waters from which it gets it’s fuel will be waiting. Then where will it go?
A trough coming off the eastern seaboard should pick up Dorian and recurve him out to sea. If its weak and doesn’t, South Florida will probably have a Cat 1 on their hands.
Yes, there I said it. I believe Dorian will become our first hurricane of the season. But I haven’t had any crow in a while either not that it tastes very good!
More later.
