DATE ISSUED: Monday, 23 September, 2019 TIME: 08:30AM (12:30UTC)
… AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KAREN…
At 08:00 am, the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 14.2 north, longitude 64.4 west or about 278 miles south-southwest of St. Maarten.
Karen is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. The center of Karen is forecast to pass about 160 miles west-southwest of St. Maarten on Tuesday afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48 hours due to strong upper-level winds.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center.
The latest estimated minimum central pressure reported is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
Meteorological Department St. Maarten will continue to monitor the progress of this system and keep the public updated accordingly.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR ST. MAARTEN:
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, possibly up to 4 inches in some areas. Increasing cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms are expected within the next 24 hours. Most of the significant showers are expected from tonight into Tuesday. Flooding and/or rockslides are expected in flood-prone areas and along hillsides. Residents and users of these areas are advised to be vigilant.
Winds: Gusty winds could accompany showers tonight through Tuesday.
Seas: Swells up to 9 feet are possible during the passage of Tropical Storm Karen. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Beach erosion is possible in vulnerable areas. Sea-bathers are advised to stay away from the sea.
The next bulletin will be issued at 11:30 am (15:30 UTC).
FORECASTER: Connor
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A Special Bulletin is issued for weather events that are unusual, cause general inconvenience or public concern (requiring the attention and action of fire department and police authorities) and cannot adequately be described in a regular weather forecast.
Tropical Depression has sustained winds less than 38 mph (62 km/h).
Tropical Storm has sustained winds between 39-73 mph (63-118 km/h).
Hurricane has sustained winds more than 74 mph (119 km/h).
