Forecasters are monitoring a “poorly organized” tropical depression, the season’s 15th, forecast to pass near or over the eastern Cabo Verde Islands before strengthening into Tropical Storm Nestor later Tuesday.
The depression formed on Monday near the western coast of Africa, a rare location for the system to develop so late into the hurricane season, according to the Weather Channel.
Here’s what you need to know:
WHERE IS IT?
The depression is about 210 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system is moving northwest near 12 mph with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph, as of Tuesday’s 5 a.m. advisory.
WILL IT GET STRONGER?
Despite being “poorly organized,” the depression is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Nestor later Tuesday, according to forecasters. But its tropical storm status will be short-lived.
The storm is expected to begin weakening on Wednesday and to become a remnant low in a couple of days, according to the hurricane center.
ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS?
While there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect as of Tuesday’s early morning advisory, the hurricane center recommends that those in the Cabo Verde Islands continue to closely monitor the depression’s progress.
“A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for a portion of the islands later today,” the advisory reads.
WHAT ABOUT HAZARDS?
Regardless of whether the depression forms into a tropical storm before passing near or over the Cabo Verde Islands, the system’s “primary threat” to the islands is locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, according to forecasters.
The depression is forecast to produce one to three inches of rain across the Cabo Verde Islands, as of Tuesday morning, with up to five inches of rain possible for those living along isolated areas in higher terrain, especially across the eastern portion of the islands.
The rain will make flash flooding and mudslides possible, according to forecasters. The eastern Cabo Verde Islands might also see tropical storm conditions later Tuesday.
The storm is currently too far away to be a threat to Florida.
ANY OTHER POTENTIAL STORMS?
A trough of low pressure is producing showers and thunderstorms over the southern Yucatán Peninsula, Belize and northern Guatemala as of 8 a.m. Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The system, along with another disturbance over the eastern Pacific, is expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, increasing the risk of flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas, according to forecasters.
By late Wednesday, the system is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and turn northward. Forecasters say conditions could become “a little more conducive for some development” near the end of the week, when the system is forecast to be over the western Gulf of Mexico.
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT?
The system has a zero percent chance of forming into a significant weather system in the next 48 hours and a low 30 percent chance in the next five days, according to the forecast.
Forecasters are also watching a tropical wave that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is more than 500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands, as of early Tuesday.
Its formation chances in the next 48 hours and five days are at a low 10 percent chance. Forecasters expect upper-level winds to become “increasingly hostile” over the system, making development unlikely while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
Neither of these two systems are a threat to Florida.
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